Outlooks 2004

[chipmunk]

Good or bad? Major finance papers and brokage house are quite optimistic about the first half of 04. Is the bull for real or just a call from the brokage house to churn out more trading vol?

[koxinga]

SARS was just reported back in China.

[bolts]

Originally posted by koxinga
SARS was just reported back in China.

Really? How serious is it?

[chipmunk]

Originally posted by koxinga
SARS was just reported back in China. Today news?

[cccp]

1 suspected case in guangdong

[bolts]

Instead of going down, the market went up slightly.

[koxinga]

US elections 2004, US Government deficit

[chipmunk]

Originally posted by koxinga
US elections 2004, US Government deficit If i am not wrong most of the banks has a target of 1USD :1.38 SGD in Less than 2 yrs time

[bolts]

Originally posted by chipmunk
If i am not wrong most of the banks has a target of 1USD :1.38 SGD in Less than 2 yrs time

Are you kidding? A strong Sing dollar will nullify any advantage we have with the US FTA. Let's not forget that we export a significant amount of goods to the US.

I doubt the government will let it drop to that level. And then there's the issue of a revaluing of the yuan against the US dollar. If that happens, 1USD:1.38SDG is unlikely to happen in the next 2 years.

[Gentleman Jack]

Right I just bought 2 Seagate hardrives ....Product of Singapore...Your welcome!!!!

On a serious note...Do u carry a trade deficit with the US or is it the other way around, it ussually is???

[chipmunk]

Originally posted by bolts
Are you kidding? A strong Sing dollar will nullify any advantage we have with the US FTA. Let's not forget that we export a significant amount of goods to the US.

I doubt the government will let it drop to that level. And then there's the issue of a revaluing of the yuan against the US dollar. If that happens, 1USD:1.38SDG is unlikely to happen in the next 2 years. Not kidding as i seen it in a report somewhere, However its up to u to believe in that report.

Scenario 1. Revaluation of yuan is quite unlikely as this move will kill lots of state firm. Hence USD will continue to weaken but dont know to which level.

scene2: Asian banks might just stop lending to US which will lead to the collapse of USD. However this is very unlikely, unless Asian Banks is willing to forgo the hundreds of billions they held in the foreign reserve.

Scene3: US imports from china are mounting as day goes by, this will creates a selling pressure for USD which augment to the slides.

As a whole, USD will depreciate against most Asian Dollars. Even Adullah is thinking of repegging the ringgit against USD.

[chipmunk]

Originally posted by Gentleman Jack
Right I just bought 2 Seagate hardrives ....Product of Singapore...Your welcome!!!!

On a serious note...Do u carry a trade deficit with the US or is it the other way around, it ussually is??? Not very sure, Anyway Singapore seldom have current account deficit or perhaps non at all except for those yrs in the 70s when we are importing tonnes of machines from abroad.

[bolts]

Originally posted by Gentleman Jack
Right I just bought 2 Seagate hardrives ....Product of Singapore...Your welcome!!!!

On a serious note...Do u carry a trade deficit with the US or is it the other way around, it ussually is???

Seagate is a US company, the profits after tax still goes back to the US. ;)

Singapore do not have a deficit now with the US. But, we have a deficit with many of our neighbors. If we have an overall deficit, Singapore would be dead very quickly. The country is too small to allow a trade deficit. The economy has always been export-driven.

[koxinga]

Sing Dollar very weak against Euro now. But then again, so is the US dollar against Euro. Gotta put holiday on hold. :(

Still i see forex movement over the next few months and this year as having a major effect towards our economy. The US deficit and trade imbalance remains outstanding issues that needs to be address. If Bush wins the election, I dun see this two things as being solved in the near term.

The yuan peg is the basis of economic stability in Asia. If that is abruptly changed, it will not be good bah.